PREDICT THE FINAL SCORE: Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos

Overview:

On Monday, October 1st, the (3-0) Kansas City Chiefs will be on the road to take on the (2-1) Denver Broncos.

The Crowd:

“The Crowd” is projecting a final score of Chiefs 29.9 – Broncos 22.5 with an over/under of 52.4.

2018-19 Statistics (32 total teams):

  • Yards per game:  Chiefs 393.3 (7th) > Broncos 382.7 (11th)
  • Points per game: Chiefs 39.3 (1st) > Broncos 20.3 (19th)
  • Turnover margin: Chiefs +1 > Broncos -2
  • Yards allowed per game: Broncos 340.3 (14th) > Chiefs 474.0 (32nd)
  • Points allowed per game: Broncos 23.3 (16th) > Chiefs 30.7 (30th)
  • Point differential: Chiefs +26 > Broncos -9

Summary:

The Chiefs are (3-0) to start the season despite a defense that is allowing the most yards per game (474.0) and the third most points (30.7).  Kansas City’s high-powered offense leads the league in points per game (39.3).  Second year quarterback Patrick Mahomes is the front runner for league MVP completing 66% of his passes for 896 yards with an absurd 13 touchdown to 0 interception ratio.  Mahomes has no shortage of weapons with tight end Travis Kelce (229 yards, 2 touchdowns) and the electric Tyreek Hill (310 yards, 22.1 AVG, and 3 touchdowns).  This prolific offensive attack also features last year’s leading rusher Kareem Hunt who is only averaging 3.2 yards per carry thus far.  The secondary for the Chiefs has been absolutely torched to the tune of 362.7 passing yards allowed per game.

The Broncos are (2-1) and rank middle of the pack in nearly every statistical category.  Case Keenum has really struggled completing 61% of his passes for 743 yards with 3 touchdowns to 5 interceptions.  Rookie running back Phillip Lindsay has been a bright spot leading the team with 198 rush yards (6.0 YPC).  Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas are still dangerous receivers but Keenum’s deficiencies have really held back the offense.  The greatly hyped pass rush duo of Von Miller and rookie Bradley Chubb has disappointed thus far but that’s largely due to the defense having to be on the field for the majority of the game.

Bottom Line:

Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense has looked absolutely unstoppable in the early portion of the season.  The whole key to this game will be whether the Broncos pass rush can get to Mahomes and throw off his rhythm.  Kareem Hunt will play a huge factor and is due for a breakout performance.  I don’t trust Case Keenum to make enough big plays should this game turn into a shootout.  I like the Chiefs to win on the road and cover the (-7.4) spread.