Editorial by: Graydon Fox
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“The Crowd” is projecting a final score of Yankees 5.8 – Red Sox 4.5 with an over/under of 10.3.
BOS: David Price (9-5, 3.66) vs NYY: Luis Severino (12-2, 2.10)
Runs per game: Yankees 5.17 (2nd) > Red Sox 5.16 (3rd)
Batting Average: Red Sox .265 (2nd) > Yankees .250 (11th)
On Base Percentage: Red Sox .330 (4th) > Yankees .329 (5th)
Total Bases: Red Sox 1274 (1st) > Yankees 1209 (3rd)
Stolen Bases: Red Sox 58 (4th) > Yankees 33 (20th)
Team Earned Run Average: Yankees 3.37 (2nd) > Red Sox 3.48 (6th)
Batting Average Against: Yankees .218 (2nd) > Red Sox .228 (6th)
Walks/Hits Per Innings Pitched: Yankees 1.15 (2nd) > Red Sox 1.19 (6th)
Strikeouts: Yankees 791 (2nd) > Red Sox 775 (3rd)
Saves: Red Sox 25 (3rd) > Yankees 24 (4th)
Errors: Red Sox 40 (9th) > Yankees 45 (17th)
The Red Sox enter the game ranking 3rd in runs per game (5.16) and 6th in team earned run average (3.48). Boston is (5-5) in their last ten games and (27-15) on the road this season. The Red Sox have one of the most potent offenses in baseball and a strong pitching staff to boot. Both Mookie Betts (.338, 20 HR, 41 RBI, 14 SB) and J.D. Martinez (.326, 24 HR, 61 RBI) are off to MVP caliber starts. Injuries have forced Dustin Pedroia out of all but three games and Boston made a surprising move to cut Hanley Ramirez. Andrew Benintendi (.290, 13 HR, 51 RBI) is emerging as one of the best young players in the game. The Red Sox have committed 40 errors (9th) and rank 5th in bullpen ERA (3.10). Boston will be facing Yankees’ ace Luis Severino (12-2, 2.10 who is an early favorite for the A.L. Cy Young Award. The Red Sox are batting a combined .244 in 160 total at-bats against Severino.
The Yankees rank 2nd in runs per game (5.17) and 2nd in team ERA (3.37). New York is (6-4) in their last ten games and (29-11) at home this season. The new age bash brothers Aaron Judge (.277, 20 HR, 52 RBI) and Giancarlo Stanton (.268, 19 HR, 46 RBI) form as imposing a lineup as there is. The Yankees were dealt a blow when Gary Sanchez was placed on the DL with a groin injury. Gleyber Torres (.289, 14 HR, 38 RBI) has been nothing short of dominant in his 56 games since making his Major League debut. The Yankees starting rotation has been better than many anticipated but they have been carried by a dynamite bullpen that ranks 3rd in ERA (2.73). The Bronx Bombers will be up against Red Sox lefty David Price (9-5, 3.66). The Yankees have had success against Price batting a combined .311 in 151 total at-bats. The absence of Gary Sanchez is huge because he absolutely owns Price (.500, 5 HR in 12 AB).
The Yankees and Red Sox have split the season series (3-3) despite Boston outscoring New York 40-30. The Yankees have an MLB best (29-11) record at home. Luis Severino has been especially dominant in June (4-1, 1.60) and nearly unhittable at Yankee Stadium (7-0, 1.83). I expect a low scoring game with two aces facing off but the Yankees’ prior success against Price gives them the edge in this match up.
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